Strategy Memo: Let America Vote’s plan to elect voting-rights champions in 2018
From: Brendan Summers, National Campaigns Director, Let America Vote
Date: June 19, 2018
RE: Let America Vote Strategic Outline
NATIONAL BACKGROUND
Let America Vote is founded on a simple premise: politicians who make it harder to vote should have a harder time getting reelected. With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that a key component of our program is assisting candidates running for election. For 2018, we’ve targeted five states in that effort and, as of this month, we’ve begun direct voter contact and advocacy on behalf of individual candidates.
Our expansion into New Hampshire, Georgia, Iowa, Tennessee and Nevada follows successful pilot programs in Virginia and New Hampshire in 2017, which provided a proof-of-concept illustrating just how effective a field-first political organization with a voting-rights mission can be.
In Virginia, we knocked over 194,000 doors to help wineight seats in the House of Delegates, including seven Republican-to-Democrat flips, as well as the Governor’s race. In Manchester, New Hampshire, we knocked nearly 10,000 doors in support of successful mayoral candidate Mayor Joyce Craig, and pitched in with strong digital organizing and ad campaigns on six special elections, contributing to victories in four of them.
One feature that sets our organizing model apart is our commitment to talking about the local issues that matter most to the candidates we’re supporting, and more importantly, to the voters we meet at the doors. While voting rights are of paramount importance to our organization, we know that advancing a pro-democracy agenda depends on electing the right candidates. That means talking about the issues that resonate the most at the doors, and ensuring that we’re electing voting-rights champions up and down the ballot.
Also key to our program is our collaborative approach. We want to add value everywhere; our highest priority is simply making the biggest difference we can to win the elections we invest in. That means working closely with partners on the ground — and directly with campaigns where it is legally permissible to do so — to ensure that we set up offices and programs that address their needs and provide maximum flexibility for reaching the voters most in need of attention and outreach.
TACTICS
As a “boots-on-the-ground” organization, field operations are clearly central to our effort to enact political consequences for politicians who try to suppress eligible voters and restrict voting rights. Here’s what that looks like in practice: We’ve established a central field office staffed by a state director, field director and deputy field director in each of our five states in 2018. The organizers are building a volunteer-driven operation that will conduct Direct Voter Contact (DVC) — mainly in the form of knocking on doors to lists of targeted voters.
While the programmatic details — which voters are targeted, for example, and in which districts — vary by state as discussed in the following sections, the emphasis on in-person conversations is central everywhere. Extended research over the past 20 years has offered substantial evidence showing the most effective way to persuade and mobilize voters is in-person contact at their doors. It also fits with the Let America Vote President Jason Kander’s philosophy: in order for a progressive message to win, we have to make our argument as widely and directly as possible.
LAV’s approach also offers significant added value to the progressive community in each state because while volunteer field operations have proven to be the most effective method of voter mobilization, they’re also the most difficult to implement. Most outside support and spending traditionally comes in the form of TV, digital and radio ads or paid canvasses for turnout purposes. By creating a volunteer field program, we’re able work more closely with partners on the ground and help them with a critical area early that can’t be set up overnight.
IOWA
Strategic Summary: LAV was initially drawn to Iowa by the voter ID law enacted there in 2017 — the first of its kind initiated and championed by a Secretary of State (Republican incumbent Paul Pate). Iowa has also been a perennial battleground state.
Electoral Breakdown: Iowa is home to 31 “pivot” counties — counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then flipped to Trump in 2016 — which is significantly more than any other state in the country. As such, a number of the LAV targeted districts will follow this same pattern in 2018.
Competitive Races: LAV’s highest tiers of targeted races in Iowa are centered around Polk (Des Moines), Scott (Davenport) and Linn (Cedar Rapids) counties with a few additional races in western and southern Iowa. These races are all highly competitive, giving LAV an opportunity to make a substantial and sustained impact through its field program.
Field Value-Add & Goals: The field team in Iowa is a coordinated-side program, and works closely with the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic state House and Senate caucuses to divide turf, coordinate voter universes and synchronize messaging to maximize efforts across the state. LAV will provide partners with crucial volunteer capacity in districts that they cannot cover or which require additional assistance.
GEORGIA
Strategic Summary: Georgia has been trending Democratic for the last several cycles. While Republicans have total control over state government in Georgia, smart strategic decisions in coordination with in-state progressive partners allowed us to help break a Senate supermajority just a few months ago. With an excellent candidate for governor in Stacey Abrams and opportunities to strategically target state House and Senate seats this cycle, we’re confident that we can the gains necessary to disrupt Republican control.
Electoral Breakdown: Despite radical Republican gerrymandering in districts across the state over the past decade, we see real opportunities to make up ground in the Georgia legislature. We will focus heavily on state House and Senate districts in northern Atlanta and surrounding counties. Additionally, we’ll work with progressive allies in the state to identify high-value turnout areas to ensure we’re closing the gap in base turnout and aiding the top of the ticket.
Field Value-Add & Goals: LAV’s Georgia operation will function as an independent expenditure and work closely with progressive partners in the state. Because of our size and strength, and position as one of the first field-focused operations in the state, we will focus on deep persuasion, leaving mobilization to other partners in the summer and fall.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Strategic Summary: Republicans have a trifecta in New Hampshire, controlling the governor’s office and both houses of the legislature. Let America Vote’s program in the state is focused on breaking that state-government stranglehold by making gains in the House and Senate, and holding Gov. Sununu accountable during his re-election campaign. In New Hampshire, LAV’s field team will work as an independent expenditure program with a heavy emphasis on door knocking, and coordination with other progressive groups in the state.
Electoral Breakdown: New Hampshire’s House is one of the largest English-speaking deliberative bodies in the world. That huge number of seats plays to LAV’s strengths, affording us an opportunity to have outsize impact on a large number of the races. Our method of knocking on doors to have conversations with neighbors is proven to get results in such localized elections, where seats are usually decided by a couple hundred votes.
Competitive Races: Most of LAV’s targeted races will be clustered in the southern New Hampshire, along with Obama-to-Trump counties in the western and northern sections of the state. LAV will deploy field teams in coordination with progressive allies to ensure we’re strategically reaching House targets and avoiding duplication of efforts. In addition to the state House, we’ll emphasize making gains and protecting incumbents in the state Senate — particularly in districts with nested house seats — and supporting the Democratic nominee against Governor Sununu.
TENNESSEE
Strategic Summary: Over the past several election cycles, Tennessee has repeatedly ranked 49th or 50th in voter turnout across the country. Let America Vote decided to get involved here to help correct this, while also demonstrating the importance of making our argument everywhere. Republicans have full control over state government, with super-majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Our work aims to begin chipping away at those majorities while boosting Democratic turnout statewide to the benefit races up and down the ticket — up to and including contests for governor and the U.S. Senate.
Electoral Breakdown: Because many Tennessee state legislative races have rarely been seriously contested over the past decade, traditional measures of electoral competitiveness are murky. LAV is working with partners on the ground to overcome these constraints and assemble a list of targeted races across the entire state — from Memphis to Nashville to Knoxville.
Competitive Races: While the state is heavily gerrymandered, most of its largest cities (Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga) have at least one competitive “ring district” in the encircling suburbs. These districts are generally characteristic of likely 2018 Democratic pick-up races nationwide, with younger, higher educated and higher mobility voters at higher tiers of persuadability. We see a clear demographic similarity in these districts to the voters successfully targeted by LAV’s field program in Virginia in 2017.
Field Value-Add & Goals: Tennessee is also a coordinated-side program, and works closely with the Tennessee Democratic Party and the statewide coordinated campaign to divide turf, coordinate voter universes and synchronize messaging. Given the districts that will be targeted, partners will likely lean on the strength, commitment and quality of LAV’s interns and volunteers to focus on deep persuasion, allowing those partners to devote resources to base mobilization and turnout.
NEVADA
Strategic Summary: One of the most meaningful policies state can implement to improve access to the polls is automatic voter registration. Democrats in Nevada passed an AVR bill during in 2017, only to see it vetoed by the Republican governor. The measure will appear, however, as a ballot issue this November, allowing voters to decide whether they want this pro-democracy provision enacted in their state. Supporting Nevada’s AVR initiative is central to Let America Vote’s Nevada strategy in 2018, along with electing Democrats to statewide offices including secretary of state, and defending the Democratic legislative majorities.
Electoral Breakdown: While Democrats hold solid margins in both chambers of the Statehouse, Nevada remains a swing state subject to extreme year-to-year electoral changes. Democrats held similar majorities prior to the 2014 elections, only be wiped out and relegated to minority status due to a dip in voter engagement and historically low turnout. LAV will invest heavily in defending high-priority districts.
Competitive Races: Most of LAV’s key races cluster in the southern and southwestern areas of Clark County, nested within perennially competitive Congressional District 3 and crossing from Las Vegas into Henderson. These districts will also see considerable overlap with the most competitive precincts for the U.S. Senate seat on the ballot this year as well, hopefully generating a “trickle-up” effect from LAV’s field efforts that will benefit Democratic candidates across the ticket.
Field Value-Add & Goals: Nevada is also a coordinated-side program, working closely with the Nevada Democratic Party and the Democratic state House and Senate caucuses to divide turf, coordinate universes and synchronize messaging. In addition to the traditionally competitive swing districts, LAV will aid our partners on several races in traditionally base districts with large populations of people of color. The goal here is to improve turnout among infrequent voters, and ultimately cement Nevada as “solid blue” state. We also see a great opportunity to help build a consistent volunteer base and organization, establishing early volunteer field investment across a state that has traditionally relied instead on last-minute paid canvass and turnout operations.
DISTRIBUTED PROGRAM
Strategic Summary: In addition to the in-state field operations, Let America Vote is prioritizing a Distributed Organizing Program for 2018 as well. We recognize that much of the broad base of grassroots and volunteer support for our field operations originates with people wanting to get involved with Jason Kander’s mission — and that it’s decentralized from any particular field office and primarily collected and driven by online engagement across the country. Given that, LAV must engage those supporters as well if it hopes to grow to its maximum grassroots capacity.
This gets at a perennial challenge for Democrats and progressives: their most ardent activists and supporters are often concentrated in areas far away from the competitive or highly targeted races. Distributed organizing allows us to create and manage a funnel of activity for these volunteers, leveraging their dedication and enthusiasm to raise the issue of voting rights everywhere and bring critical capacity to our targeted races.
Field Value-Add & Goals: The ultimate goal of the Distributed program is to add voter-contact capacity to targeted races in targeted states. We have a pool of activists that most existing groups on the ground do not have on their own, and we’re uniquely positioned to mobilize these volunteers and bring new faces to the field effort.
CONCLUSION
The blue wave is not a weather event: it’s something that will be built by knocking doors in the 108-degree heat of Las Vegas, through a text messaging that resonates across campuses in Ames and Iowa City, and through one-on-one meetings with activists in Nashua and Manchester.
Let America Vote has the leadership, resources, volunteer base and know-how to do all those things, and to add real value to progressive campaigns in our targeted states and across the country during the 2018 election cycle. With early field investment and the flexibility to deploy resources where they’ll have the biggest impact, LAV will ensure that we are doing our part to elect progressives and voting-rights champions across the country.
